Eclairages monthly - December 2008
End of the commodities super cycle

The slowdown in the commodity price cycle predicted by many analysts for "after the Beijing Olympic Games" did indeed take place and, in just a few months, turned into a downturn of unprecedented violence and scale. It has affected all sectors, even though their fundamentals continue to differ significantly. In this issue of Éclairages, we examine these trends and attempt to measure the impact of the crisis on the industry and to foresee the duration of the crisis. We also take a look at a high tech metal, indium, that is increasingly present in our day-to-day lives.
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Perspectives Quarterly – December 2008
Seeking a New Balance

Low global interest rates and the abundance of liquidity encouraged people to take risks, with increasing leverage and asset price inflation. Excesses were committed: the economic prosperity phase masked these, the crisis showed them up. The banking crisis, in its systemic version, seems to have been staunched, but the debt reduction cure still has a long way to go. Central banks and states accordingly rallied round to ensure that the transition to a less leveraged growth phase takes place in as orderly a manner as possible.<BR>
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Eco News - Edition decembre 8, 2008
France: What effects should we expect from the fiscal stimulus?

The measures included in the fiscal stimulus are designed to halt the fall-off in French economic activity that began in mid-2008. The plan is valued at €26 billion, or 1.3% of GDP. The plan has two components: the first concerns corporate liquidity, especially in SMEs. The other consists in launching public-sector investment programmes. There are also plans to provide support for sectors experiencing great difficulties, such as the automotive and construction industries.
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Eclairages monthly - November 2008
Crises and exiting crises

Exiting the crisis is the issue everyone is grappling with. Not only bankers, but also entrepreneurs and investors are all seeking a way out. And because the crisis has reached global proportions in terms of sectors (moving from finance to banking and finally the real economy) and in terms of countries (first the US, then Europe, and the emerging economies), the response cannot be limited, isolated, or moderate. But the response must recognize that what we are experiencing is not "too much finance" but rather the consequences of a long-standing and growing global imbalance between savings and investment, basically between China and the United States.
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Eco News - Edition November 25, 2008
US housing crisis special features not generally present in Europe

Today it is tempting to draw a parallel between the severe housing correction that got underway in the United States at the end of 2005 and the more recent housing downturn in Europe. However comparison is not reason.
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Eco News - Edition November 19, 2008
New recessionary phase for Italian economy

With two consecutive quarters of negative growth, Italy officially went into recession. No rebound in activity is being forecast for Q4. For the first time in 15 years, Italy's annual growth will be negative in 2008 and could stay that way in 2009. Nevertheless, as Italy does not post some financial unbalances (lower household indebtedness, no housing boom…), the strength and the length of the crisis could be lessened.
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Eco News - Edition November 14, 2008
G20: Everything begins or ends with a Bretton Woods

Representatives from the G20 countries get together this weekend for an extraordinary summit, which some are already qualifying as Bretton Woods Mark II. It has a dual imperative: it must combat one of the most severe economic and financial crises in contemporary history, and redraw the outlines of a new monetary and financial world order.
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